Where We’re Seeing Opportunity in 2026: The Property Markets on Our Radar

Australia’s property market in 2026 is not one where broad assumptions work.

Prices are still rising nationally, but the story underneath that headline is far more nuanced. PropTrack’s February 2026 Home Price Index showed national prices up 0.5% for the month and 9.1% over the year, with regional markets continuing to outperform capitals.

At the same time, the RBA cash rate sits at 3.85% (effective 4 February 2026), rental vacancies remain historically tight, and new dwelling approvals fell 7.2% in January 2026 — highlighting the supply pressure still sitting beneath the market.

Together, this suggests 2026 is less about chasing the “hottest” market and more about identifying places where demand, affordability, supply constraints and liveability still align. Cotality’s 2026 outlook also points to a gradual recovery with growing investor activity, rather than a broad national boom.

At Property Black Book, the markets on our radar are the ones where that balance still looks attractive.

What We’re Looking For in 2026

We are not just looking for markets that have already surged. Instead, we focus on locations where several fundamentals still line up:

• relative affordability
• genuine owner-occupier demand
• tight rental conditions
• infrastructure or employment support
• constrained future supply
• property types that still make sense at the price point

This lens matters more now because many of the strongest markets since 2020 have already experienced major price growth. In 2026, discipline matters far more than hype.

1. Southeast Queensland Value and Lifestyle Corridors

Southeast Queensland remains one of the most compelling regions in the country — but not every part of it is equal.

PropTrack reports the region added nearly 400,000 people between 2018–19 and 2023–24. Ipswich, Logan, Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast have been major domestic migration destinations, driven by affordability, lifestyle appeal and the search for more space.

Brisbane and the Gold Coast, meanwhile, have seen stronger overseas migration, which has helped drive intense rental demand, particularly for units.

For investors, that creates an important distinction.

In the more value-driven SEQ corridors, we like areas where migration, family demand and affordability still align. In Brisbane and the Gold Coast, we’re watching locations where rental pressure remains strong and the underlying economy continues to expand.

Brisbane remains one of the better-performing capitals in 2026, with PropTrack reporting prices up 0.7% in February and 15.9% over the year. SQM Research also recorded Brisbane vacancy at just 0.9%.

For us, SEQ is still a market to watch — but selectively. The opportunity is no longer simply “Queensland.” It’s about understanding which submarkets are driven by buying demand, which by rental demand, and where the numbers still work.

2. Melbourne Recovery and Value-Based Corridors

Melbourne presents a different opportunity in 2026.

The city hasn’t seen the same explosive growth as Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth in recent years — which is exactly why it remains interesting.

PropTrack data shows that while Melbourne’s growth has been slower, more than four in five investor resales were still profitable. NAB’s January 2026 update reported Melbourne dwelling values up 5.4% annually, with houses up 6.5%.

Growth has been strongest in more affordable outer and middle-ring areas including:

• Frankston
• Brimbank
• Kingston
• Dandenong
• Sunbury
• Tullamarine–Broadmeadows
• Whittlesea–Wallan

These value-driven corridors are the kind of markets we watch closely.

Melbourne can make sense where pricing remains reasonable relative to replacement cost, local owner-occupier demand is strong, and infrastructure supports long-term liveability.

We don’t see Melbourne as a blanket call — but as a recovery and value market, it deserves attention in 2026.

3. Regional Queensland — Especially North Queensland

Regional Queensland continues to stand out.

PropTrack reported regional markets outperforming capitals over the past year, with regional Queensland recording annual growth of about 13%. Townsville has also been highlighted as one of the country’s fastest-growing markets, supported by affordability, employment growth, infrastructure and population inflows.

That said, this is exactly where investors need to avoid chasing momentum.

What keeps regional Queensland on our radar is the underlying fundamentals: affordability compared with capital cities, strong employment bases, and limited available stock.

PropTrack also reported that total listings across regional Queensland were about 43% below the eight-year average — a clear sign of constrained supply.

For us, North Queensland and selected regional markets remain interesting where jobs, infrastructure and genuine housing demand align.

4. Markets With Tight Rental Conditions and Limited New Supply

One of the clearest national themes in 2026 is the challenge of increasing housing supply.

SQM Research reported national vacancy at 1.2% in January 2026, with extremely tight conditions in:

• Brisbane (0.9%)
• Adelaide (0.8%)
• Perth (0.6%)
• Hobart (0.4%)

Meanwhile, ABS data showed dwelling approvals fell 7.2% in January, with approvals for private dwellings excluding houses down 24.5%.

This doesn’t automatically make every tight rental market a good investment. But markets where supply remains structurally limited deserve close attention.

In practical terms, we focus on locations where:

• vacancy rates are already tight
• new supply is slow to arrive
• renters compete strongly for quality stock
• the local economy can support demand across a full cycle

That framework matters more than simply chasing yields on paper.

5. Not Just the Fastest-Growing Markets — The Most Durable Ones

Some of the strongest markets since 2020 have already experienced enormous growth.

PropTrack notes that Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have all seen prices rise more than 90% since March 2020. Perth was still the fastest-growing capital to February 2026, with annual growth of 19.5%.

Those numbers are impressive — but they also raise the bar for selectivity.

In 2026 the better question isn’t simply “what has grown the most?” It’s “where is demand still durable, supply still constrained, and value still present?”

Sometimes that will still be in strong-growth states. In other cases, it may be quieter recovery markets where sentiment hasn’t fully caught up with fundamentals.

Our View for 2026

If we summarise the markets on our radar this year, they include:

• Southeast Queensland where migration, affordability and lifestyle intersect
• Select Melbourne corridors showing value and recovery potential
• Regional Queensland markets supported by employment and limited supply
• Locations with structurally tight rental markets and slow new construction

We are not chasing noise. We are focused on markets where fundamentals still support disciplined investment decisions.

Because in 2026, opportunity still exists — but it is increasingly selective.

Final Thoughts

Australia’s property market continues to move, but it’s moving unevenly.

Interest rates remain relatively restrictive, rental supply is tight, and new housing supply has not yet rebounded enough to ease pressure in many markets. That means investors need to be more targeted than they were a few years ago.

At Property Black Book, we focus on the places where value, demand and timing intersect — not simply the markets making the most noise.

That’s where we believe the smarter opportunities will be found in 2026

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